Sunday, December 31, 2006
Upcoming in 2007
Happy New Year!
2007
As necessary as looking back, we must also look forward. Here is ValleyVue's "forecast" for Central Valley events in 2007. It is presented as worst case and best case scenarios:
1. Worst Case: Port of Sacramento closes operations. Although now operated by the Port of Oakland, the Port of Sacramento continues to lose money and is unable to compete against the Port of Stockton and other West Coast ports, including an emerging super port in Vancouver, BC.
Best Case: Dredging plans move forward to deepen water channel to Port of Sacramento. Not able to currently handle freight easily hauled to the Port of Stockton, the channel is deepened to allow for larger vessels from Sacramento's parent port in Oakland. The Port of Oakland continues to grow in traffic and increasingly uses Sacramento to handle overflow traffic. Asian markets increase need for the Valley's crops, and new export deals increase outgoing port traffic.
2. Worst Case: State government stagnates as Schwarzenegger and state house bicker. All sense of bipartisanship is lost, and the governor returns to pursuing conservative measures to appease his Republican backers. State Democrats seize the opportunity, and push their agenda. Nothing gets done.
Best Case: Lessons of old bring forth sense of cooperation in Sacramento. Like any good Hollywood star, Schwarzenegger recognizes the source of his popularity and continues to push for balance. He moves forward on environmental issues, and improves relations with the state's public unions to appease the left. On the right, Schwarzenegger and the state representatives agree crime is a major concern and work to reduce it by focusing on gangs. President Bush visits Schwarzenegger in L.A. to talk about immigration issues, in the beginning development of a national policy.
3. Worst Case: Sacramento's downtown growth slows. A number of forces combine to damage Sacramento's downtown core for years to come. Rising construction and steel prices put a halt to the building of "The Towers" project on the Capital Mall, causing a rippling effect to other construction projects through downtown. "The Aura" condo tower project, fearing similar results, also stops plans, and no new tower plans come in to the city. The new owners of the Railyard become embroiled with the city on how much the Sacramento Train Depot is worth, and toxic soils continue to dog plans to build on the project. The Greyhound Station remains in its current location, and crime hurts the downtown image.
Best Case: Sacramento's moving on up! "The Towers" project continues to proceed, largely due to developer John Saca's determination. That projects success spurs interest in downtown, not only among developers, but also potential residents who now see downtown as a good community to live in. The positive aura spreads, and West Sacramento begins to quickly develop its side of the Sacramento River, speeding the need for a Tower Bridge trolley. The Broadway corridor, struggling through a mental malaise brought on by the bankruptcy of Tower Records, sees the road surge with new retail. The move of the Train Depot building causes much spectacle in the city, and goes off without a hitch. The Railyard begins building after toxicity concerns are cleared. The spot in the Railyards reserved for an arena is put to good use (see #2 below).
2. Worst Case: Las Vegas Kings. In a surprise announcement following the end of the season, Kings officials announce a move to Las Vegas. NBA Chief David Stern, after months of unfruitful negotiations with the city, blesses the move, which is approved by the NBA owners. The Maloofs announce plans to build a new arena in Las Vegas, in connection with its casino holdings. They sell the Monarchs for a bargain price to a local ownership group. However, after Arco is bulldozed to make way for new houses, the team reaches a deal with the University of California to play its home games at the Pavilion in Davis.
Best Case: Arena financing deal settled. Stern, the Maloofs, county and city officials announce in a joint press conference a public-private financing plan for a new arena in the Railyards. The Arena is to be owned by a new "Sacramento Stadium Authority", which has authority over all architectural details. Maloof requirements for huge parking garages are dropped. The Maloofs go for the deal because they see no better opportunities elsewhere.
1. Worst Case: Valley city floods. Record rainfall in one April weekend, combined with warm temperatures in the mountains causing the snow to melt, results in the highest river levels seen in decades. Levees, weakened by years of animal burrowing, plant growth, and river erosion, break, pouring water into our cities. Despite practice drills to get ready for this situation, emergency crews are quickly overcome by the spreading flood waters. A lack of warning given to Valley residents causes great loss. In the space of a few minutes, water and debris are pouring into one of our major cities.
Best Case: Valley withstands another rainy season. Despite rain and snow melt, Valley communities are spared damage. A levy breaks in the delta, but no floods strike populated areas. The delta levy break provides yet another reminder to the state of the importance of shoring up our levy system. Construction and repairs begin in earnest along that system through our dry season, and crews work remarkably fast to prepare for oncoming storms. Another hard look is taken at the possibility of an Auburn Dam providing more flood protection.
2007
As necessary as looking back, we must also look forward. Here is ValleyVue's "forecast" for Central Valley events in 2007. It is presented as worst case and best case scenarios:
1. Worst Case: Port of Sacramento closes operations. Although now operated by the Port of Oakland, the Port of Sacramento continues to lose money and is unable to compete against the Port of Stockton and other West Coast ports, including an emerging super port in Vancouver, BC.
Best Case: Dredging plans move forward to deepen water channel to Port of Sacramento. Not able to currently handle freight easily hauled to the Port of Stockton, the channel is deepened to allow for larger vessels from Sacramento's parent port in Oakland. The Port of Oakland continues to grow in traffic and increasingly uses Sacramento to handle overflow traffic. Asian markets increase need for the Valley's crops, and new export deals increase outgoing port traffic.
2. Worst Case: State government stagnates as Schwarzenegger and state house bicker. All sense of bipartisanship is lost, and the governor returns to pursuing conservative measures to appease his Republican backers. State Democrats seize the opportunity, and push their agenda. Nothing gets done.
Best Case: Lessons of old bring forth sense of cooperation in Sacramento. Like any good Hollywood star, Schwarzenegger recognizes the source of his popularity and continues to push for balance. He moves forward on environmental issues, and improves relations with the state's public unions to appease the left. On the right, Schwarzenegger and the state representatives agree crime is a major concern and work to reduce it by focusing on gangs. President Bush visits Schwarzenegger in L.A. to talk about immigration issues, in the beginning development of a national policy.
3. Worst Case: Sacramento's downtown growth slows. A number of forces combine to damage Sacramento's downtown core for years to come. Rising construction and steel prices put a halt to the building of "The Towers" project on the Capital Mall, causing a rippling effect to other construction projects through downtown. "The Aura" condo tower project, fearing similar results, also stops plans, and no new tower plans come in to the city. The new owners of the Railyard become embroiled with the city on how much the Sacramento Train Depot is worth, and toxic soils continue to dog plans to build on the project. The Greyhound Station remains in its current location, and crime hurts the downtown image.
Best Case: Sacramento's moving on up! "The Towers" project continues to proceed, largely due to developer John Saca's determination. That projects success spurs interest in downtown, not only among developers, but also potential residents who now see downtown as a good community to live in. The positive aura spreads, and West Sacramento begins to quickly develop its side of the Sacramento River, speeding the need for a Tower Bridge trolley. The Broadway corridor, struggling through a mental malaise brought on by the bankruptcy of Tower Records, sees the road surge with new retail. The move of the Train Depot building causes much spectacle in the city, and goes off without a hitch. The Railyard begins building after toxicity concerns are cleared. The spot in the Railyards reserved for an arena is put to good use (see #2 below).
2. Worst Case: Las Vegas Kings. In a surprise announcement following the end of the season, Kings officials announce a move to Las Vegas. NBA Chief David Stern, after months of unfruitful negotiations with the city, blesses the move, which is approved by the NBA owners. The Maloofs announce plans to build a new arena in Las Vegas, in connection with its casino holdings. They sell the Monarchs for a bargain price to a local ownership group. However, after Arco is bulldozed to make way for new houses, the team reaches a deal with the University of California to play its home games at the Pavilion in Davis.
Best Case: Arena financing deal settled. Stern, the Maloofs, county and city officials announce in a joint press conference a public-private financing plan for a new arena in the Railyards. The Arena is to be owned by a new "Sacramento Stadium Authority", which has authority over all architectural details. Maloof requirements for huge parking garages are dropped. The Maloofs go for the deal because they see no better opportunities elsewhere.
1. Worst Case: Valley city floods. Record rainfall in one April weekend, combined with warm temperatures in the mountains causing the snow to melt, results in the highest river levels seen in decades. Levees, weakened by years of animal burrowing, plant growth, and river erosion, break, pouring water into our cities. Despite practice drills to get ready for this situation, emergency crews are quickly overcome by the spreading flood waters. A lack of warning given to Valley residents causes great loss. In the space of a few minutes, water and debris are pouring into one of our major cities.
Best Case: Valley withstands another rainy season. Despite rain and snow melt, Valley communities are spared damage. A levy breaks in the delta, but no floods strike populated areas. The delta levy break provides yet another reminder to the state of the importance of shoring up our levy system. Construction and repairs begin in earnest along that system through our dry season, and crews work remarkably fast to prepare for oncoming storms. Another hard look is taken at the possibility of an Auburn Dam providing more flood protection.
Labels: 2007 year forecast, California Central Valley, Sacramento, San Joaquin
