Sunday, December 31, 2006
Upcoming in 2007
Happy New Year!
2007
As necessary as looking back, we must also look forward. Here is ValleyVue's "forecast" for Central Valley events in 2007. It is presented as worst case and best case scenarios:
1. Worst Case: Port of Sacramento closes operations. Although now operated by the Port of Oakland, the Port of Sacramento continues to lose money and is unable to compete against the Port of Stockton and other West Coast ports, including an emerging super port in Vancouver, BC.
Best Case: Dredging plans move forward to deepen water channel to Port of Sacramento. Not able to currently handle freight easily hauled to the Port of Stockton, the channel is deepened to allow for larger vessels from Sacramento's parent port in Oakland. The Port of Oakland continues to grow in traffic and increasingly uses Sacramento to handle overflow traffic. Asian markets increase need for the Valley's crops, and new export deals increase outgoing port traffic.
2. Worst Case: State government stagnates as Schwarzenegger and state house bicker. All sense of bipartisanship is lost, and the governor returns to pursuing conservative measures to appease his Republican backers. State Democrats seize the opportunity, and push their agenda. Nothing gets done.
Best Case: Lessons of old bring forth sense of cooperation in Sacramento. Like any good Hollywood star, Schwarzenegger recognizes the source of his popularity and continues to push for balance. He moves forward on environmental issues, and improves relations with the state's public unions to appease the left. On the right, Schwarzenegger and the state representatives agree crime is a major concern and work to reduce it by focusing on gangs. President Bush visits Schwarzenegger in L.A. to talk about immigration issues, in the beginning development of a national policy.
3. Worst Case: Sacramento's downtown growth slows. A number of forces combine to damage Sacramento's downtown core for years to come. Rising construction and steel prices put a halt to the building of "The Towers" project on the Capital Mall, causing a rippling effect to other construction projects through downtown. "The Aura" condo tower project, fearing similar results, also stops plans, and no new tower plans come in to the city. The new owners of the Railyard become embroiled with the city on how much the Sacramento Train Depot is worth, and toxic soils continue to dog plans to build on the project. The Greyhound Station remains in its current location, and crime hurts the downtown image.
Best Case: Sacramento's moving on up! "The Towers" project continues to proceed, largely due to developer John Saca's determination. That projects success spurs interest in downtown, not only among developers, but also potential residents who now see downtown as a good community to live in. The positive aura spreads, and West Sacramento begins to quickly develop its side of the Sacramento River, speeding the need for a Tower Bridge trolley. The Broadway corridor, struggling through a mental malaise brought on by the bankruptcy of Tower Records, sees the road surge with new retail. The move of the Train Depot building causes much spectacle in the city, and goes off without a hitch. The Railyard begins building after toxicity concerns are cleared. The spot in the Railyards reserved for an arena is put to good use (see #2 below).
2. Worst Case: Las Vegas Kings. In a surprise announcement following the end of the season, Kings officials announce a move to Las Vegas. NBA Chief David Stern, after months of unfruitful negotiations with the city, blesses the move, which is approved by the NBA owners. The Maloofs announce plans to build a new arena in Las Vegas, in connection with its casino holdings. They sell the Monarchs for a bargain price to a local ownership group. However, after Arco is bulldozed to make way for new houses, the team reaches a deal with the University of California to play its home games at the Pavilion in Davis.
Best Case: Arena financing deal settled. Stern, the Maloofs, county and city officials announce in a joint press conference a public-private financing plan for a new arena in the Railyards. The Arena is to be owned by a new "Sacramento Stadium Authority", which has authority over all architectural details. Maloof requirements for huge parking garages are dropped. The Maloofs go for the deal because they see no better opportunities elsewhere.
1. Worst Case: Valley city floods. Record rainfall in one April weekend, combined with warm temperatures in the mountains causing the snow to melt, results in the highest river levels seen in decades. Levees, weakened by years of animal burrowing, plant growth, and river erosion, break, pouring water into our cities. Despite practice drills to get ready for this situation, emergency crews are quickly overcome by the spreading flood waters. A lack of warning given to Valley residents causes great loss. In the space of a few minutes, water and debris are pouring into one of our major cities.
Best Case: Valley withstands another rainy season. Despite rain and snow melt, Valley communities are spared damage. A levy breaks in the delta, but no floods strike populated areas. The delta levy break provides yet another reminder to the state of the importance of shoring up our levy system. Construction and repairs begin in earnest along that system through our dry season, and crews work remarkably fast to prepare for oncoming storms. Another hard look is taken at the possibility of an Auburn Dam providing more flood protection.
2007
As necessary as looking back, we must also look forward. Here is ValleyVue's "forecast" for Central Valley events in 2007. It is presented as worst case and best case scenarios:
1. Worst Case: Port of Sacramento closes operations. Although now operated by the Port of Oakland, the Port of Sacramento continues to lose money and is unable to compete against the Port of Stockton and other West Coast ports, including an emerging super port in Vancouver, BC.
Best Case: Dredging plans move forward to deepen water channel to Port of Sacramento. Not able to currently handle freight easily hauled to the Port of Stockton, the channel is deepened to allow for larger vessels from Sacramento's parent port in Oakland. The Port of Oakland continues to grow in traffic and increasingly uses Sacramento to handle overflow traffic. Asian markets increase need for the Valley's crops, and new export deals increase outgoing port traffic.
2. Worst Case: State government stagnates as Schwarzenegger and state house bicker. All sense of bipartisanship is lost, and the governor returns to pursuing conservative measures to appease his Republican backers. State Democrats seize the opportunity, and push their agenda. Nothing gets done.
Best Case: Lessons of old bring forth sense of cooperation in Sacramento. Like any good Hollywood star, Schwarzenegger recognizes the source of his popularity and continues to push for balance. He moves forward on environmental issues, and improves relations with the state's public unions to appease the left. On the right, Schwarzenegger and the state representatives agree crime is a major concern and work to reduce it by focusing on gangs. President Bush visits Schwarzenegger in L.A. to talk about immigration issues, in the beginning development of a national policy.
3. Worst Case: Sacramento's downtown growth slows. A number of forces combine to damage Sacramento's downtown core for years to come. Rising construction and steel prices put a halt to the building of "The Towers" project on the Capital Mall, causing a rippling effect to other construction projects through downtown. "The Aura" condo tower project, fearing similar results, also stops plans, and no new tower plans come in to the city. The new owners of the Railyard become embroiled with the city on how much the Sacramento Train Depot is worth, and toxic soils continue to dog plans to build on the project. The Greyhound Station remains in its current location, and crime hurts the downtown image.
Best Case: Sacramento's moving on up! "The Towers" project continues to proceed, largely due to developer John Saca's determination. That projects success spurs interest in downtown, not only among developers, but also potential residents who now see downtown as a good community to live in. The positive aura spreads, and West Sacramento begins to quickly develop its side of the Sacramento River, speeding the need for a Tower Bridge trolley. The Broadway corridor, struggling through a mental malaise brought on by the bankruptcy of Tower Records, sees the road surge with new retail. The move of the Train Depot building causes much spectacle in the city, and goes off without a hitch. The Railyard begins building after toxicity concerns are cleared. The spot in the Railyards reserved for an arena is put to good use (see #2 below).
2. Worst Case: Las Vegas Kings. In a surprise announcement following the end of the season, Kings officials announce a move to Las Vegas. NBA Chief David Stern, after months of unfruitful negotiations with the city, blesses the move, which is approved by the NBA owners. The Maloofs announce plans to build a new arena in Las Vegas, in connection with its casino holdings. They sell the Monarchs for a bargain price to a local ownership group. However, after Arco is bulldozed to make way for new houses, the team reaches a deal with the University of California to play its home games at the Pavilion in Davis.
Best Case: Arena financing deal settled. Stern, the Maloofs, county and city officials announce in a joint press conference a public-private financing plan for a new arena in the Railyards. The Arena is to be owned by a new "Sacramento Stadium Authority", which has authority over all architectural details. Maloof requirements for huge parking garages are dropped. The Maloofs go for the deal because they see no better opportunities elsewhere.
1. Worst Case: Valley city floods. Record rainfall in one April weekend, combined with warm temperatures in the mountains causing the snow to melt, results in the highest river levels seen in decades. Levees, weakened by years of animal burrowing, plant growth, and river erosion, break, pouring water into our cities. Despite practice drills to get ready for this situation, emergency crews are quickly overcome by the spreading flood waters. A lack of warning given to Valley residents causes great loss. In the space of a few minutes, water and debris are pouring into one of our major cities.
Best Case: Valley withstands another rainy season. Despite rain and snow melt, Valley communities are spared damage. A levy breaks in the delta, but no floods strike populated areas. The delta levy break provides yet another reminder to the state of the importance of shoring up our levy system. Construction and repairs begin in earnest along that system through our dry season, and crews work remarkably fast to prepare for oncoming storms. Another hard look is taken at the possibility of an Auburn Dam providing more flood protection.
Labels: 2007 year forecast, California Central Valley, Sacramento, San Joaquin
Best of 2006
2006
It is the end of the year, and what kind of column would this be without a "year-in-review". Here is ValleyView's version. It's a look at the Top 10 most significant events concerning the future of the Central Valley of California.
10. Summer fires hit north state. The Redding/Chico part of the state experienced another extraordinary fire season. While the fires were not directly in the Valley (more towards the national forests), Valley communities were effected as they were utilized as bases of operation for fire fighters, as well as experienced the adverse effect of poor air quality for a number of days. Fires also caused air pollution throughout the rest of the Valley, with fires in El Dorado counties and near the Grape Vine at the extreme southern part of the Valley sending billowing smoke into the atmosphere.
9. Democrats take control of U.S. Congress. While happening thousands of miles away in Washington, and with almost no contribution by Valley communities, the Democratic Party took the majority of the seats in the National Congress. The one notable incumbent loss by Valley politicians was Jerry McNerney's win over Republican Richard Pombo for the Stockton area House seat. Pombo and other Republicans suffered due to a dismal approval rating for President Bush, the Iraq war, and links to the Abramoff bribe scandals. In particular, Pombo ran afoul of many in controversial environmental statements about Yosemite National Park. The change in Congressional leadership in most cases will be subtle, but it signals the people's demand for change in the national government.
8. College Sports Developments. Truly, there is one "elephant in the room" in regards to sports in the Central Valley--the one major pro team, the Sacramento Kings. While other sports are gaining a foothold, they still cannot claim the national prominence of the Kings. On the college landscape in 2006, some schools took step forwards, while others stepped back. Cal State Bakersfield began its first transition year in moving to Division I, the NCAA's highest level. UC Davis, at the end of that transition now, completed building a new football stadium. Pacific won it's third consecutive Big West Championship in Men's Basketball, which is considered one of the two "glamour sports" in college athletics. The other glamour sport--football--saw the Valley's only I-A team in the Fresno State Bulldogs fail to reach a bowl or be much of a hindrance at all to other regional teams. Sacramento lost its bid to host the 2007 NCAA Men's Track and Field Championship again, and Sacramento State stands on shaky legs in many respects regarding the development of its athletic programs. Yet, the Hornets have announced plans to begin building a new stadium locker facility.
7. Transportation. The state and several Valley communities passed proposals that will provide funding for improved transportation infrastructure. Fresno voted to increase its sales tax by a half-cent to provide for more transportation projects at a time when population pressures are adding traffic to already jammed roads.
6. UC Merced completes first school year. The University of California's newest campus, in Merced, opened for students in fall 2005, and completed its first academic year this spring. While so far the student population is low, it is significant for the Valley for a new UC to operate in one of the poorest parts of the state. UC Merced will likely be an economic engine in the Fresno/Merced area for years to come.
5. Housing boom slows. The housing market in the Central Valley continued its slowdown throughout 2006, mirroring what has occurred on a state and national level. Prices stopped their meteoric rise, but continued to rise, albeit at much lower levels. Houses also continue to be built throughout the Valley, but not at the pace seen in previous years. Housing additions have been a boon in recent years, as many people have moved into the Valley from L.A. and the Bay Area. Prices of homes are no longer a huge bargain in comparison to coastal areas, which was the biggest enticement for transplants into the region. Also, interest rates have been slowly rising, which is hurting many with variable loans.
4. Arnold Schwarzenegger retained. What a year for the "Governator". From extremely low approval ratings following his disastrous special election in November 2005, Schwarzenegger has rebounded completely, largely due to a new commitment to bipartisanship. He was viewed by voters as more positive and open than challenger Phil Angelides, and one in a landslide.
3. Measures Q and R fail in Sacramento. Regarded as important for the quick development of downtown Sacramento and assuring the Kings would stay in town, Q and R sought to provide a funding stream for a new arena, among other arts projects throughout Sacramento county. These measures failed miserably. Voters rejected the measures, showing a lack of confidence in local leaders to act on the best interests of taxpayers in using the funds. Voters also thought the measures rewards weighed poorly against other civic needs, saying billionaire sports owners should build there own venues, and the people should me more concerned with helping those in need. Significantly, the failure casts a shadow over the King's long term prospects in the Central Valley.
2. Sacramento Railyards. In the real estate viewed by many as the most beneficial spot for a new sports arena, the railyards sat most of 2006 dormant, lying in wait under mounds of toxic soil. After years of sales negotiations, the Union Pacific Railroad agreed days ago to sell the Railyards to a private firm for development. In the deal, Sacramento city takes control of the Amtrak station, with eyes on moving the terminal, as well as developing a new inter modal transportation facility. Weeks ago Sacramento Regional Transit began operating its newest spur, extended adjacent to the train station. Local preservationists are also looking at the old railyard shops as a future expansion of Sacramento's world renown railroad museum with new Technology center. The Railyard represents a major, undeveloped area that will be a natural extension of Sacramento's downtown core.
1. Flood Control moves forward. Sometimes it takes a painful lesson for change to occur. After New Orleans suffered from the worst U.S. natural disaster with the flooding of the city following damage to levies by Hurricane Katrina, Sacramento's likely future calamities grabbed attention of the state and national governments. Not just in the capital city, levies that were built to protect agriculture now were now used to safeguard lives and homes. Voters passed a financing proposal to rebuild damaged levies, and after too long a wait, work began on levies in populated areas throughout the Valley. Still thousands of homes are being built in floodplains, which will likely see some flooding in the future.
It is the end of the year, and what kind of column would this be without a "year-in-review". Here is ValleyView's version. It's a look at the Top 10 most significant events concerning the future of the Central Valley of California.
10. Summer fires hit north state. The Redding/Chico part of the state experienced another extraordinary fire season. While the fires were not directly in the Valley (more towards the national forests), Valley communities were effected as they were utilized as bases of operation for fire fighters, as well as experienced the adverse effect of poor air quality for a number of days. Fires also caused air pollution throughout the rest of the Valley, with fires in El Dorado counties and near the Grape Vine at the extreme southern part of the Valley sending billowing smoke into the atmosphere.
9. Democrats take control of U.S. Congress. While happening thousands of miles away in Washington, and with almost no contribution by Valley communities, the Democratic Party took the majority of the seats in the National Congress. The one notable incumbent loss by Valley politicians was Jerry McNerney's win over Republican Richard Pombo for the Stockton area House seat. Pombo and other Republicans suffered due to a dismal approval rating for President Bush, the Iraq war, and links to the Abramoff bribe scandals. In particular, Pombo ran afoul of many in controversial environmental statements about Yosemite National Park. The change in Congressional leadership in most cases will be subtle, but it signals the people's demand for change in the national government.
8. College Sports Developments. Truly, there is one "elephant in the room" in regards to sports in the Central Valley--the one major pro team, the Sacramento Kings. While other sports are gaining a foothold, they still cannot claim the national prominence of the Kings. On the college landscape in 2006, some schools took step forwards, while others stepped back. Cal State Bakersfield began its first transition year in moving to Division I, the NCAA's highest level. UC Davis, at the end of that transition now, completed building a new football stadium. Pacific won it's third consecutive Big West Championship in Men's Basketball, which is considered one of the two "glamour sports" in college athletics. The other glamour sport--football--saw the Valley's only I-A team in the Fresno State Bulldogs fail to reach a bowl or be much of a hindrance at all to other regional teams. Sacramento lost its bid to host the 2007 NCAA Men's Track and Field Championship again, and Sacramento State stands on shaky legs in many respects regarding the development of its athletic programs. Yet, the Hornets have announced plans to begin building a new stadium locker facility.
7. Transportation. The state and several Valley communities passed proposals that will provide funding for improved transportation infrastructure. Fresno voted to increase its sales tax by a half-cent to provide for more transportation projects at a time when population pressures are adding traffic to already jammed roads.
6. UC Merced completes first school year. The University of California's newest campus, in Merced, opened for students in fall 2005, and completed its first academic year this spring. While so far the student population is low, it is significant for the Valley for a new UC to operate in one of the poorest parts of the state. UC Merced will likely be an economic engine in the Fresno/Merced area for years to come.
5. Housing boom slows. The housing market in the Central Valley continued its slowdown throughout 2006, mirroring what has occurred on a state and national level. Prices stopped their meteoric rise, but continued to rise, albeit at much lower levels. Houses also continue to be built throughout the Valley, but not at the pace seen in previous years. Housing additions have been a boon in recent years, as many people have moved into the Valley from L.A. and the Bay Area. Prices of homes are no longer a huge bargain in comparison to coastal areas, which was the biggest enticement for transplants into the region. Also, interest rates have been slowly rising, which is hurting many with variable loans.
4. Arnold Schwarzenegger retained. What a year for the "Governator". From extremely low approval ratings following his disastrous special election in November 2005, Schwarzenegger has rebounded completely, largely due to a new commitment to bipartisanship. He was viewed by voters as more positive and open than challenger Phil Angelides, and one in a landslide.
3. Measures Q and R fail in Sacramento. Regarded as important for the quick development of downtown Sacramento and assuring the Kings would stay in town, Q and R sought to provide a funding stream for a new arena, among other arts projects throughout Sacramento county. These measures failed miserably. Voters rejected the measures, showing a lack of confidence in local leaders to act on the best interests of taxpayers in using the funds. Voters also thought the measures rewards weighed poorly against other civic needs, saying billionaire sports owners should build there own venues, and the people should me more concerned with helping those in need. Significantly, the failure casts a shadow over the King's long term prospects in the Central Valley.
2. Sacramento Railyards. In the real estate viewed by many as the most beneficial spot for a new sports arena, the railyards sat most of 2006 dormant, lying in wait under mounds of toxic soil. After years of sales negotiations, the Union Pacific Railroad agreed days ago to sell the Railyards to a private firm for development. In the deal, Sacramento city takes control of the Amtrak station, with eyes on moving the terminal, as well as developing a new inter modal transportation facility. Weeks ago Sacramento Regional Transit began operating its newest spur, extended adjacent to the train station. Local preservationists are also looking at the old railyard shops as a future expansion of Sacramento's world renown railroad museum with new Technology center. The Railyard represents a major, undeveloped area that will be a natural extension of Sacramento's downtown core.
1. Flood Control moves forward. Sometimes it takes a painful lesson for change to occur. After New Orleans suffered from the worst U.S. natural disaster with the flooding of the city following damage to levies by Hurricane Katrina, Sacramento's likely future calamities grabbed attention of the state and national governments. Not just in the capital city, levies that were built to protect agriculture now were now used to safeguard lives and homes. Voters passed a financing proposal to rebuild damaged levies, and after too long a wait, work began on levies in populated areas throughout the Valley. Still thousands of homes are being built in floodplains, which will likely see some flooding in the future.
Labels: 2006 year in review, California Central Valley
